July 5, 2019

How the federal electoral landscape looks in Manitoba and Saskatchewan

Posted on CBC News.

There aren’t a lot of swing seats on the Prairies, but if October’s federal election ends up being close those few hotly-contested ridings in Saskatchewan and Manitoba could play an outsized role.

And with less than four months to go before the vote, the Prairies are looking like a place where the Conservatives can make gains — putting the Liberals and New Democrats on the defensive.

Across the two provinces, the Conservatives won 15 seats in the last election. The party dominated the southern rural ridings in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but were pushed out of the urban seats in Winnipeg. Seven of the eight seats in the city went to the Liberals, with the other one going to the NDP.

The New Democrats also won the two northern, largely-Indigenous ridings and one seat in each of Regina and Saskatoon.

But the Conservatives are up in the polls on the Prairies, with the Liberals down significantly in Manitoba and the NDP in Saskatchewan. That puts the two parties’ urban seats in danger of flipping.

To break it all down on this week’s episode of The Pollcast, host and CBC polls analyst Éric Grenier is joined by Andrew Enns, president of the NRG Research Group and a pollster who has worked with the federal Conservatives and Manitoba PCs, and Sally Housser, an NDP strategist and former deputy director of communications for the Manitoba NDP.

NRG Research Group